A few days ago I wrote a post about how Germany was on the hook for potentially half a trillion euros if the euro was to collapse. Well over the last few months it looks as if Germany has a plan B to ditch the euro, which lets face it, they will benefit from enormously and not have the risk of holding the bag when the euro can finally hits the wall.

And at this point there really is not a formal mechanism which would enable other members of the eurozone to kick financially troubled nations such as Greece or Portugal out of the euro.  But there is one possibility that is becoming increasingly likely that could actually cause the break up of the euro.  Germany could leave the euro.  Yes, it might actually happen.  Germany is faced with a very difficult problem right now.  It is looking at a future where it will be essentially forced to bail out most of the rest of the nations in the eurozone for many years to come, and those bailouts will be extremely expensive. 

Other european countries are getting sick of the Germans and Germany is sick of being taken for granted.

Financially troubled nations such as Greece want German bailout money, but they are getting sick and tired of the requirements that Germany is imposing upon them in order to get that money.  Increasingly, other nations in Europe are simply ignoring what Germany is asking them to do or are openly defying Germany.  In the end, Germany will need to decide whether it is worth it to continue to pour billions upon billions of euros into countries that don’t appreciate it and that are not doing what Germany has asked them to do.

Germany passed a resolution to let countries leave the euro. The suspicion being that they meant themselves.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party recently approved a resolutionthat would allow a country to leave the euro without leaving the European Union.

Many thought that the resolution was aimed at countries like Greece or Portugal, but the truth is that this resolution may be setting the stage for a German exit from the euro.

German voters are clearly unhappy and with Spain shoving up two fingers this week, its looking like German politicaly is slowing losing more control. Less face it, losing control is one thing the anal Germans don’t like.

Voters in Germany are definitely not in the mood to give any more bailout money to other nations in Europe, but if Germany is going to continue to stay in the eurozone many more bailouts will be required in the coming years.

Meanwhile, Germany is rapidly losing control over the rest of the eurozone….

*Greece has implemented some of the austerity measures that have been required of it, but many others have not been implemented.  In a few weeks there will be a national election, and parties that are opposed to the austerity measures are surging in the polls.  It is likely that the new government will be much less friendly toward Germany.

*The Spanish government is already defying the budgetary requirements that the EU is trying to impose upon it.  Spain is definitely going to miss the debt targets mandated by the EU, and the Spanish government has absolutely no plans of making more reductions to government spending.

*The upcoming election in France could be absolutely crucial.  Nicolas Sarkozy is not doing well in the polls and the new French government could totally wreck the recent fiscal agreement that the members of the eurozone recently agreed to.

 What happens if the Germans have had enough?

If the rest of Europe continues to defy Germany, then at some point Germany may decide to simply pick up the ball and go home.

Germany is the strongest economy in the eurozone by far, and if Germany were to pull out the euro would absolutely collapse.  Whatever currency Germany decided to issue would be extremely valuable.  Such an event would actually have some tremendous side benefits for Germany.

Right now, the German national debt is denominated in euros.

If Germany left the euro, the value of euros would plummet and would likely keep declining as the rest of the eurozone fell apart financially and Germany would be able to pay back its debt in rapidly appreciating “marks” or whatever other currency it decided to issue.

All other debts in Germany would also be denominated in euros and would also be repaid with a much stronger currency.

If Germany leaves the euro, that does not mean that the dream of a single currency is dead.  Germany could just let the rest of the eurozone collapse and then invite them to join the new German currency eventually after all the carnage is over.

At that point, Germany would have all the leverage and Germany would be able to dictate all the rules.

What is clear is that the status quo in Europe is becoming extremely unacceptable in Germany.  The Germans do not intend to give endless bailouts to other nations that do not appreciate them and that do not intend to follow the rules.

At some point Germany may actually decide to walk, and there are lots of whispers that Germany has been steadily preparing for that day.

Bear in mind Germany has already put a plan in place to bail out its bank should the SHTF.

Germany recently reinstated its Special Financial Market Stabilization Funds.  This money would be used to bail out German banks in the event of a break up of the euro. 

In short, Germany has given the SoFFIN:

  1. €400 billion to be used as guarantees for German banks.
  2. €80 billion to be used for the recapitalization of German banks
  3. Legislation that would permit German banks to dump their euro-zone government bonds if needed.

That is correct. Any German bank, if it so chooses, will have the option to dump its EU sovereign bonds into the SoFFIN during a Crisis.

In simple terms, Germany has put a €480 billion firewall around its banks. It can literally pull out of the Euro any time it wants to.

And there are already rumours from last year that Germany has ordered printing plates for printing the new marks.

What happens if Germany decides to stay in the euro?

If Germany chooses to say in the euro, it is going to be faced with extremely expensive bailouts of other countries for as far as the eye can see.

How expensive?

The following is from a New York Times article….

Bernard Connolly, a persistent critic of Europe, estimates it would cost Germany, as the main surplus-generating country in the euro area, about 7 percent of its annual gross domestic product over several years to transfer sufficient funds to bail out Europe’s debt-burdened countries, including France.

That amount, he has argued, would far surpass the huge reparations bill foisted upon Germany by the victorious powers after World War I, the final payment of which Germany made in 2010.

So there you have it. What would you do?

Source: theeconomiccollapseblog

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