With protests growing in Argentina against the Government the CDS shows a 60% chance of default in weeks according to ZeroHedge.

Dear Buenos Aires: we have three words of advice – “hide yo’ catamarans” (before Paul Singer comes and collects them all once you default again in what the market now deems is inevitable to occur in the next few weeks). 5Y CDS on Argentina just reverse-Baumgartnered to over 3000bps (49/53% upfront) and short-dated CDS imply a 60% probability of default (assuming a 25% recovery).

The Argentinian government under Cristina Kirchner is deeply unpopular and in recent weeks there has been a growing unrest.

Angry over inflation, crime and corruption, hundreds of thousands of Argentines of all ages flooded the capital’s streets for nearly four hours to protest against President Cristina Fernandez in Argentina’s biggest anti-government demonstration in years.

Protests were reported right across Argentina and beyond its borders.

A spokesman for Buenos Aires’ Justice and Security Ministry estimated the demonstrators in the capital at 700,000 people. Other demonstrations were held on plazas across Argentina, including in major cities such as Cordoba, Mendoza and La Plata, while protesters massed outside Argentine embassies and consulates from Chile to Australia.

In Rome, about 50 protesters, all Argentine expats, held a noisy protest outside the consulate on Via Veneto, one of the city’s landmark streets. Among the slogans being shouted was “Cristina, go away.”

About 200 demonstrators braved rain in Madrid to bang pots outside the Argentine consulate.

Approval ratings plummeting in less than a year.

Fernandez easily won re-election just a year ago with 54 percent of the vote but saw her approval rating fall to 31 percent in a nationwide survey in September by the firm Management & Fit. The poll of 2,259 people, which had an error margin of about two percentage points, also said 65 percent of respondents disapproved of her opponents’ performance.

But it’s when people are hit in the pocket that people react and inflation is biting hard.

Inflation also upsets many. The government’s much-criticized index puts inflation at about 10 percent annually, but private economists say prices are rising about three times faster than that. Real estate transactions have slowed to a standstill because of the difficulty in estimating future values, and unions that won 25 percent pay hikes only a few months ago are threatening to strike again unless the government comes up with more.

Source: ZeroHedge, LasVegasSun

 

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