Advertisements

Austrian Business Cycle Explained

Comments Off on Austrian Business Cycle Explained

Advertisements

Financial Collapse 2013

Comments Off on Financial Collapse 2013

Many economists and analysts have been warning of a Global Financial collapse is just up ahead. As 2012 draws to a close a number of those well known names have risked their reputations and predicted what lies ahead in 2013. I have pieced together some of those predictions.

[1]Jim Willie writes of a Gold Standard as a solution to the crisis nations find themselves in as the system collapses. 

The arrival of the Gold Standard as the solution is being slowly manifested in the form of a gold-core trade settlement system, which will drive a global Gold Standard. The new system will dictate bank reserves practices, and render the USTBond as a rejected toxic paper relic. It should arrive early in 2013. In the process, the Western nations will become impoverished, as they desperately cling to the failed system. Anger will rise. Disorder will prevail. The USDollars inside the United States will be trapped, then devalued as the public watches in shock. The power will shift East inevitably, with the shipment of Gold. A new era will begin.

BusinessInsider wrote of [2]Geralde Celente’s (23 Dec 2012) view ahead.

Gerald Celente, the popular trends forecaster of Trends Research, cites the work of a former Treasury official and warns that the bonds are in a massive bubble that will burst in 2013 in what will be a financial collapse like nothing we’ve seen before.

He recently spoke about it in an interview with King World News:

“This piece is being penned by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, the former Assistant Treasury Secretary under Ronald Reagan.  And he is convinced that the bond bubble is about to burst.  This cannot continue to go on the way it is.  Everyone knows that the whole game is rigged, and so is this….

The whole game is rigged.  It’s ready to go down, and Dr. Paul Craig Roberts believes it’s ‘Bonds Away’ in 2013 as the bond bubble explodes and brings about a financial disaster even worse than the Great Depression.

Because the whole world is being propped up by these phony bonds and it’s going to collapse.  It has to happen.  Interest rates are going to start going up, and when they do the bond bubble explodes.  You cannot keep interest rates at zero for this amount of time and expect anything other than disaster to follow.”

[3]Jim Rogers expects based on the US having a recession every 4 years and the existing debt is so high that 2013 is going to be a disaster and for everybody to be very worried. For interview on MoneyNews click here.

be very worried about 2013 be very worried about 2014, because that’s when the next slowdown comes. In 2002 we had a recession in 2008, it was worse because the debt was so much higher, it is going to be even worse because the debt is so staggeringly high now. So if you are not worried about 2013, please get worried

Max Keiser on an interview (Aug 2012) on the Alex Jones show gave a timeframe of April 2013 at the latest.

April 2013 at the very latest when those tax receipts in the US will be spectacularly short.

. Goto 32 min

[4] Marc Faber sees 100% chance of Global Recession.

Dr. Marc Faber the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor is still expecting a global recession in 2013 when the economies of the world could take a hit from negative developments.

Speaking to CNBC‘s Closing Bell on Thursday, Faber still sees a 100% chance the world heads into recession, echoing a call he made in May, as he simply can’t see where growth will come from.

“If you look at the world, essentially Europe, the US, China and emerging economies that depend heavily on China, Europe is already in recession, the German economy is still growing slightly but likely to go into recession, the other economies are already in recession. The US has decelerated and I don’t see much growth in the next 6-12 months,” he said.

…….

When taken in concert, all the economies of the world could take a hit from these negative developments, he reckons. “I think we could have a global recession either in Q4 or early 2013.” When asked what were the odds, Faber replied, “100%.”

Is there anything the Fed or the Treasury can do, i.e. more quantitative easing?

“If you look at the injections of liquidity and the interventions by the Fed and also by the Treasury with fiscal measures over the last 15 years, [the measures] have actually already impoverished the U.S. economy,” he said.

John Williams (shadowstats.com) sees hyperinflation by 2013/2014

the economy is not going to recover. They are going to have to buy increasingly more and more as it does so the treasuries actually add to the increase of the money supply and that adds to the inflation pressures from there. where i see the risk and  where i see the trigger here from moving into a hyperinflationary circumstance in the next year or two. By 2014 is the outside timing I put on it. Very simply is a panic decline in the dollar.

See 12:40 min

[5]Peter Schiff has been bullish on gold and has been proved right down through the years. Schiff has also be very vocal in criticising the state of the US economy and has predicted a US Treasury collapse in 2013.

Market-Crushing Treasury Collapse To Hit Around 2013 , Peter Schiff expects the coming crisis to blow the 2008-9 financial crisis out of the water.“The more you delay it,(The FED’s ultra-loose monetary policy ) the bigger it will be,” “so we need to raise interest rates during the recession to confront the inefficiencies.” Peter Schiff told Forbes in a phone interview – via Forbes

[6]Michael Kreiger in an article on ZeroHedge (Oct 2012) believes 2013 is when the US finally experiences similar problems to the EU as the fiat dollar ponzi system comes to a boiling point.

As Nixon’s Treasury Secretary John Connelly said when confronted by a group of European Finance Ministers: “it’s our currency, but your problem.”  At the time he was correct, as we were at the very beginning of the fiat dollar standard.  41 years later the system is in its final days and our currency is about to become our problem as well.

There were always going to be massive consequences to keeping this ponzi alive.  What is extremely unfortunate is the small number of U.S. citizens that actually understand specifically that the root of every problem we face right now is the fiat dollar monetary system, because it gives all the power in the country to the Federal Reserve and the TBTF banks that tell Banana Ben Bernanke what to do.  Since 2008, many of the consequences of the fraud called American Crony Capitalism Inc. have been clear, but it has yet to hit the boiling point.  I believe that the boiling point will be hit sometime within the next six months, and 2013 will see the streets of America  beginning to look a lot like the streets of Spain and Greece.

Nobody sums it up better than this interview of Nicole Foss (Automatic Earth) on interest.co.nz of what lies ahead.

Potential Collapse scenario 1

Potential Collapse scenario 2 (Jim Rickards)


Sources:

[1] SilverDoctors,

[2] BusinessInsider,

[3] Jim Rogers,

[4] Lewrockwell,

[5] peterschiffchannel.blogspot.ie,

[6] ZeroHedge

Failure On COMEX Silver Likely

Comments Off on Failure On COMEX Silver Likely

We finished December with a large takedown of both gold and silver by the central banks cartel but already the COMEX is showing signs of strain in coping with demand in silver. Banks with short positions (used to suppress the price) are unlikely to be covered in 2013 and so there is likely to be a failure on the COMEX.

Matterhorn Asset Management’s Lars Schall has released an excellent interview with GoldMoney’s Alasdair Macleod, discussing the latest take-down of the metals post QE4, the outlook for gold and silver, and cartel manipulation of the metals.
Macleod states that massive amounts of physical gold and silver have been flowing to Asia, and that the latest bank participation report indicates massive problems are brewing for the banksters in the COMEX silver market.  With cartel shorts near a record at just under 300 million net ounces, yet with the silver price substantially lower than the 2011 high, Macleod believes that we are quite likely to have a failure on COMEX and in the silver market in particular.

Regarding the latest bank participation report, Macleod states that commercial shorts are at record highs, yet NO SILVER IS AVAILABLE!:

“Bank shorts are at or near record levels. And what is interesting is that with the prices of gold and silver well below the all-time highs there are no profit-takers in the market to sell contracts to close their shorts. And in silver it is very, very alarming. This leads me to think that we are quite likely to have a failure on COMEX and in the silver market in particular.

If you have a failure in silver on COMEX then that is going to affect the gold futures market as well. The West’s central and commercial banks have suppressed the price of both gold and silver by supplying central-bank gold and increased short positions, making prices far too cheap. The result has been a massive transfer of gold and silver to Asia. This is the relevance of the point that you have been raising about Central Banks gold holdings, and it is also going to bring into question the solvency of the bullion banks who are short.

So, I think that while it may not be obvious to many people at the moment, when we look back at the fourth quarter we will see that the conditions were in place for a huge bear squeeze, for silver in particular. I would assume that the short position in gold is more controllable so long as Western Central Banks continue to make bullion available to the bullion banks that are short either on COMEX or with LBMA. But silver is different, nobody has it for sale. There is no silver around.”

Macleod goes on to state that gold will be remonetized, and the process is already well underway:

“I suspect that the Chinese Yuan will play a big role in Asia. What they’re doing with Iran is interesting. They’re settling net balances in gold and gold is being re-monetized in that sense. And I think that China has accumulated a lot more gold than they officially tell us. So they have the potential to use gold as money. I can see gold being re-monetized in the loosest sense for the largest internal market the world has ever seen. Believe me, it’s happening now.”

Macleod also states that the upcoming physical silver crisis at the COMEX will result in a suspension of silver trading at the COMEX, and a reset massively upwards in the price of silver:

“You’ve got the banks’ short position on COMEX which cannot be covered. According to the most recent bank participation reports, the banks are short of nearly 300 million ounces of silver. When you bear in mind this is an industrial metal, the vast bulk of silver consumption from mining and recycling supply goes into biocides, solar panels, electronics, et cetera. You have only 100 million ounces annually left over for investors. The short position for the banks on COMEX is three times that 100 million ounces.

There’s no way this can be covered without a price rise sufficient to kill off significant industrial demand, because there are no strategic reserves to draw on. The only country which might have strategic reserves is China but otherwise there are no reserves. And I think that the only way in which the banks’ shorts could be closed out is after a price hike which would lead to billions of dollars of losses for these banks. There will be a market crisis, and I think that they will have to suspend trading in silver and agree a settlement procedure for long and short contracts. And if that happens, it will be well over $50 an ounce. But remember, other exchanges will continue to price silver if Comex suspends, which will not help Comex resolve the problem if the price continues to rise elsewhere.”

On another question, Macleod was asked about Yuan as the next reserve currency being backed by gold :

“We must also understand that the dollar is for security reasons not something they want to use for their international trade settlements. Remember that every dollar transaction done in the world is reflected in a bank account in New York. So, the Chinese want to get away from the potential control and the intelligence information that it gives America. They want to use a different settlement medium.

Now, they agreed about 10 years ago with the Russians to set up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and the last unsatisfied objective of the SCO is to have a common trade settlement system between the members of the SCO, which at the moment are Russia, China, and the various “stans” in middle-Asia. But interestingly, the next wave of members who will join are India, Iran, Pakistan, Mongolia and Afghanistan (as soon as NATO has left). So you’ve really got the bulk of Asia’s four billion people and they’re going to be settling cross-border trade not with the dollar but with something else. They need to be gold-rich to give confidence to their currencies. I suspect that the Chinese Yuan will play a big role in Asia. What they’re doing with Iran is interesting. They’re settling net balances in gold and gold is being re-monetized in that sense. And I think that China has accumulated a lot more gold than they officially tell us. So they have the potential to use gold as money. I can see gold being re-monetized in the loosest sense for the largest internal market the world has ever seen. Believe me, it’s happening now.”

Source: SilverDoctors

 

Central Banking To End In Disaster

Comments Off on Central Banking To End In Disaster

Its hard to disagree with this article from MoneyWeek that central banking has been a complete disaster for mankind. But to put all the blame at the feet of central banking would be wrong. Politicians, the media and of course our own ignorance has played a major hand in where we find the global economy. The days of CBs focusing on taming inflation via interest rates is long gone. Instead we get endless bubbles, and now the biggest bubble of all the debt bubble and a big unavoidable shit pile up ahead. 

Central bankers are throwing caution to the winds

There’s a revolution going on in the central banking world.

When the cult of independent central bankers took hold, their main enemy was inflation. They all had to keep inflation rising at a gentle pace of around 2% a year.

They didn’t care about asset price inflation. The price of a house could rocket as much as it liked. And they were quite relaxed about the soaring price of energy as long as this was offset by a drop in the price of music players, for example.

All in all, they managed to stick to the inflation target pretty well. Meanwhile the economy still overheated massively, then collapsed in on itself under the weight of all the debt everyone had taken on.

CBs new recipie for success. It doesn’t involve worrying about inflation, thats just for the little people.

That approach clearly didn’t work. So what’s the new recipe for success?

The Federal Reserve in America has thrown caution over inflation to the winds. It is now emphasising employment over price changes. The Fed has become even more aggressive in its monetary policy, even as the US economy seems to be healthier than it has been in a long time.

In the UK, the Bank of England governor-in-waiting, Mark Carney, says he’s a fan of NGDP targeting. You can read more about this from my colleague Seán Keyes here: Should we replace Mervyn King with a robot? In short, it means you target a certain level of nominal economic growth. If that means tolerating inflation at 5%, while ‘real’ growth is at 0%, then so be it. In other words, it’s a way to go soft on inflation without breaking your rules.

And in Japan, the new party in power has sworn to stop deflation. The Bank of Japan may end up with a new inflation target of 2%, double its current target.

In short, central banks have decided that inflation doesn’t matter any more. Fretting about this target is holding them back from taking the decisive action needed to resuscitate our ailing economies. 2013 is going to be all about taking monetary policy to the max.

We sense disaster looming.

Central banks have a bad record – why trust them now?

Central banking might just work, if it was genuinely independent. If you had central bankers who were willing to do the whole ‘counter-cyclical’ thing, we might have a more stable economy. In other words, if central banks were willing to raise interest rates to temper booms, rather than just slash them to alleviate busts, then they might do some good.

But this is never going to happen. Central banks argue that it’s impossible to see asset bubbles inflating. This is nonsense. The fact is that they don’t care about bubbles.

All that matters to them is that the economy keeps chugging forwards. It doesn’t matter whether it’s chugging towards the promised land or towards a cliff edge – all growth is good growth. So they will never act to rein in a boom, regardless of whether it’s ‘healthy’ or not.

This is because central banks are political institutions. They are not independent. And as long as you understand this, then it’s easy to see why we’re trapped in this self-destructive cycle of bubble-blowing.

Politicians will always pursue ‘boom and bust’ policies because they always think they’ll get out on time. Voters love a boom. Taking the punch bowl away during the boom time is not the way to win votes. And by the time the bust arrives, it’ll be someone else’s problem, with any luck.

This central bank bias in favour of ‘easy’ money lies at the heart of all the bubbles we’ve seen in recent decades. The tech bubble inflated, then burst. Interest rates were slashed. The property bubble inflated, then burst. Interest rates were cut to near-zero, and central banks started buying government bonds. So we now have a bubble in government debt.

There is one thing that is more toxic for bond prices than anything else – inflation. And right on cue, across the world, central banks are falling over themselves to abandon inflation targeting.

Is there a method in their madness? Or are they just pursuing growth at any cost? Past performance is no guide to the future, we’re always told. But I think anyone who believes that central bankers are going to get it right this time is being almost deliberately naïve.

So what can you do about it? A bond market blow-up would be nothing short of disastrous for most asset classes. We can’t know when it’s going to happen. But it’s one good reason to make sure you have a well-diversified portfolio.

We’ve been knocking about some ideas for setting up a long-term, cheap-to-run, core ‘retirement’ portfolio at MoneyWeek recently. We’re looking for something that allows you to sleep at night without sacrificing a big chunk of performance.

We’ll have more details on this in the New Year, but it’s certainly made me think a lot about how investors can survive and even make money with this potential disaster looming in the background.

Loosely speaking, I’d suggest having some money in cheap stocks (Japan in particular – see here for more), very little – if any – money in bonds (except perhaps index-linkers), some gold, and a decent amount of cash. The cash is there to give you the opportunity to snap up cheap assets if and when the bubble finally bursts.

Some interesting quotes relevant to Central Banking

“It is no coincidence that the century of total war coincided with the century of central banking.”

Ron Paul

“the last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth.”
         – Alan Blinder (former Fed Reserve Board Vice Chairman)

Source: MoneyWeek

Berlusconi Hints At Italy Returning to Lira

Comments Off on Berlusconi Hints At Italy Returning to Lira

Berlusconi has mentioned in the past of Italy possibly returning to the Lira and has is at it again as he warns of an Italian exit from the eurozone unless the European Central Bank gets more powers to ensure lower borrowing costs.

Reminding the world of just the kind of truthiness that got him sacked originally by that other Italian, the Ex-Goldmanite Mario Draghi, back in November 2011, and which the world has to look forward to when Silvio Berlusconi returns to power some time in 2013, even if not as PM (a position he currently has a snowball’s chance in hell of regaining based on current political polls), Reuters informs us that the Italian, who certainly has not read the Goldman book on status quo perpetuation, just said the unimaginable: the truth. To wit: “If Germany doesn’t accept that the ECB must be a real central bank, if interest rates don’t come down, we will be forced to leave the euro and return to our own currency in order to be competitive.” Berlusconi said in comments reported by Italian news agencies Ansa and Agi. The 76-year-old media tycoon has made similar remarks in the past about the possibility of Italy, or even Germany, leaving the euro, but has often at least partially rectified them later.” Not this time. Now with Germany and the Buba folding like a broken chair, Silvio is coming back and knows he can demand anything and everything, and Germany has no choice but to accept, Merkel reelection in a few months be damned.

Perhaps the former PM who recently got engaged to this 28 year old girl who obviously loves him for his personality has read our little primer on what happens in a Europe in which external devaluation (i.e., FX) is not a possibility, and where another 30-50% drop in PIIGS salaries would be neccesary to restore competitiveness. That, or a return to the Lira of course. And Berlusconi has seen that in the duel between Greece and Germany so far the former (and specifically its creditors) have gotten all the advantage. It is only a matter of time before he parlays that negotiating approach to Italy as well, and in the process destabilizes whatever artificial balance the ECB may have created.

….

Enjoy the little European respite ladies and gents, because in a few weeks, the Magic Money Tree-free reality is coming back with a vengeance.

Source: ZeroHedge

99.9% of Australia’s Gold Is Held In Bank Of England

Comments Off on 99.9% of Australia’s Gold Is Held In Bank Of England

I would seriously be worried if I was Australian since 99.9% of its gold is stored in the Bank of England’s vaults. When the SHTF, good luck in getting it back. So many countries over the last few months have admitted to their gold being stored overseas either at the Fed or the Bank of England. 

The email below from the RBA has been made available on ausbullion.blogspot.com.au who campaigned for the information.

After a campaign throughout 2012 to seek clarity in regards to the location of Australia’s Gold Reserves the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has confirmed today in an email to me that 99.9% of their Gold Reserves are held in the gold vault of the Bank of England.

Please read below for the text of the RBA’s email response to me dated 19/12/12:

Thank you for your email.
 
As at end-June 2011 the Reserve Bank of Australia held 80 tonnes of gold in London Good Delivery bars. The Reserve Bank holds 99.9 per cent of its gold reserves in the United Kingdom at the Bank of England. The remaining 0.1 per cent is held at the Reserve Bank’s Head Office in Sydney.
 
London is a major global gold trading market and the Bank of England provides a secure and cost-effective storage location for central banks and market participants. The Reserve Bank has processes in place to ensure that the gold reserves are maintained appropriately. It is not considered necessary from management, security or operational  perspectives to relocate the gold bars to a facility in Australia.
 
The Reserve Bank has reviewed its approach to releasing details about its management of the physical reserves of gold and decided to release the above information.
 
Please note that we answered your previous questions as a routine public enquiry.  The FOI Act concerns itself with the release of documents, rather than answering questions, so a request must seek documents to be valid. 
 
Regards
 

Chris Collins | Manager | Media & Public Relations Office

Russia Introduces Gold And Silver Coins As Legal Tender

Comments Off on Russia Introduces Gold And Silver Coins As Legal Tender

A smart move by Russia to issue gold and silver coins as legal tender. Its another blow to the confidence of fiat currency. The Central Bank of Russia said:

The coins are legal tender cash payment in the Russian Federation and must be accepted at face value in all kinds of payments without any restrictions

 

It seems 2012 is not yet done with its surprises. The Central Bank of Russia has issued three values of bullion (300,000 31.1g silver pieces with a 3RUB face value, 300,000 7.78g gold pieces with 50RUB face, & 100,000 15.55g gold pieces with a 100RUB face value) that can be used as legal tender beginning, well,  TWO DAYS AGO! If you don’t yet understand the ramifications of such a move, don’t worry, it’s not too late. But you want to begin reading now – starting with the history of metals as money. The clock is ticking and no one knows when the the current economic model’s Duracell will die. Hell, we don’t even know if it’s a AAA, AA, 9V, C size, or D size battery. Every year there seems to be the establishment of new institutions with the capital to lend more. In my book these sizes don’t matter. I think we’re already on the Duracell Rechargeable model. But we all know they don’t last for ever either.

The link from the Central Bank of Russia is at : http://www.cbr.ru/pw.aspx?file=/press/if/121217_164427monet1.htm

Sourc: sandeproject.wordpress.com

Older Entries

%d bloggers like this: