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Ollie Rehn – Depositors To Take Hit If An EU Bank Fails Under Planned Law

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Hey, here’s a great idea, let’s make the Cyprus solution official. Ollie Rehn has disclosed that the EU plans to make it official in law for governments to steal your money when banks go bankrupt. Looks like the Dutch Finance Minister wasn’t alone in thinking this was a great idea after all.

(Reuters) – Big bank depositors could take a hit under planned European Union law if a bank fails, the EU’s economic affairs chief Olli Rehn said on Saturday, but noted that Cyprus’s bailout model was exceptional.

“Cyprus was a special case … but the upcoming directive assumes that investor and depositor liability will be carried out in case of a bank restructuring or a wind-down,” Rehn, the European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, said in a TV interview with Finland’s national broadcaster YLE.

“But there is a very clear hierarchy, at first the shareholders, then possibly the unprotected investments and deposits. However, the limit of 84,890 pounds is sacred, deposits smaller than that are always safe.”

The European Commission is currently drafting a directive on bank safety which would incorporate the issue of investor liability in member states’ legislation.

To secure a 10 billion euro EU/IMF bailout last month, Cyprus forced heavy losses on wealthier depositors. Initially it had also pledged to introduce a levy on deposits of less than 84,890 pounds – even though they are supposedly protected by state guarantees – before reneging in the face of widespread protests.

Source: Reuters

 

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Looks Like European Banks Were Given the Nod Over A Year Before Cyprus Went Bust

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Core European banks made a lot of money leaving money on deposit in Cyprus. While locked in for a year a nice profit could be made at 4.9%. Bit of coincidence then that this money made it out in time suggesting that most of them knew over a year in advance of when the collapse would come. Charles Hugh Smith takes a look at what led up to the Cyprus Banking collapse.

Longtime correspondent David P. (proprietor of Market Daily Briefing) charted some very interesting data that enables us to follow the money–specifically, Eurozone money in the “foreign deposit sources” (deposits in Cyprus banks that originated from outside Cyprus).

It appears the key preliminary step of the Real Cyprus Template is that money-center banks in Germany and other “core” Eurozone nations pull their money out of the soon-to-implode “periphery” nation’s banks before the banking crisis is announced.

As David observed, “I think this explains a lot about something that has always puzzled me: why the delay in resolving Cyprus after the Greek haircut?”

Here is David’s explanation and two key charts:

“The Cyprus situation had been simmering for at least a year when in March of 2013 it finally broke; Cyprus had a week to take care of its banking situation or else face a cutoff of access to the eurosystem by the ECB. This brought matters to a head; the Cyprus Bail-In was finally settled upon, where uninsured depositors in the two largest banks in Cyprus took major haircuts, and must wait for return of their money until the assets of the banks are run down.

The banking problems in Cyprus had their roots in the Greek Sovereign Default, and were known by the general public for about a year prior to the recent default; a New York Times article dated April 11, 2012 lays out the particulars.

Looking at Cyprus bank security assets in data provided by the ECB, the problems were visible earlier – right after the first Greek haircut in mid 2011, and a second haircut finalized in early 2012. This was a 11 billion euro hole in a system with 100 billion in assets total, centered upon two banks that held half the deposits in the system.

Greek Crisis Timeline

Date Event
April 2010 Greek Sovereign Bonds Declared Junk
May 2010 110 Euro bailout, no haircut
July 2011 “Private Sector Involvement” decided at EU Summit
Oct 2011 130 Euro bailout, 53% face value haircut
Mar 2012 Haircuts take effect; actual haircut 85%

You can see the effects of the increasing haircuts in the chart below. The chart lists all types of bonds owned by all the banks on Cyprus. The red line is the important one. It shows “all off-island Eurozone Government Bonds.”

Put more simply, that red line represents Greek Government debt owned by the two banks on Cyprus that failed. It went from a 12 billion euro value in mid 2011, down to a 1 billion euro value in early 2012. That’s an 11 billion haircut – all due to the Greek Default.

So why did the eurozone wait so long to resolve the problematic Cypriot banks with their 11 billion euro hole that was clearly serious in the middle of 2011, and becoming blindingly obvious by 2012? Therein lies a story – it has to do with banking, and how banks make money. The explanation is a bit complicated, but bear with me.

Bank deposits are grouped into 3 primary categories: deposits from households, from corporations, and from other banks. Households and corporations typically have a long standing relationship with their bank; they only move their deposits slowly, and most of this sort of depositor uses time deposits to maximize their interest income. Deposits from other banks are what we might term “hot money.” They arrive quickly, and depart just as fast. But why would a bank deposit money with another bank? The simple explanation is: interest rate spreads.

Let’s imagine you ran a German bank, and you paid very low rates to your overnight depositors. You have a great deal of really cheap money on your hands. What are your options to make money? You can either loan money to German homeowners one by one, but there are only so many German homeowners, and they only want to borrow so much money. So after loaning all you can loan, you search the world to try and find another bank that is advertising high rates for deposit money, and you stumble on the banks in Cyprus.

Rate Deposit Type & Location
0.55% German Overnight Deposit
1.1% Cyprus Overnight Deposit
2.8% Cyprus Savings Deposit (1 year)
4.9% Cyprus Time Deposit (1 year)

Now then, if the Bank of Cyprus doesn’t go under, this is free money. How much are we talking about? Subtract the rate for the overnight deposit in Germany from the time deposit on Cyprus (4.9 – 0.55) then multiply by 60 billion euros. That ends up being 2.61 billion euros in profit. Per year! Cost? One guy at a computer hitting the “transfer” button on his keyboard in Dusseldorf!

This sure beats trying to loan money to a bunch of German homeowners one by one! But the key to this free money is, your bank must be able to get its money out of Cyprus prior to any trouble.

And the barrier to getting the bank’s money back is those Time Deposits (the deposits paying the most interest) are stuck in Cyprus for a year. So in order to avoid loss, you have to see into the future one year and stop rolling your bank’s time deposits one year before those Cyprus banks go under. Otherwise you will have collected that 4.9%, then suffered a 30-60% uninsured depositor haircut. And a haircut is not a good way to ensure your banker bonus for the year.

So with this hypothetical strategy in mind and being mindful of the dangers of default and the timeline of when things occurred, take a look at the following chart of “foreign deposit sources” (deposits in Cyprus banks that originated from outside Cyprus) and see for yourself how well each foreign participant did in anticipating the eventual banking system crisis.

 

  • Black: Eurozone [German & French] Banks
  • Red: Cyprus people and businesses
  • Blue: Cyprus Banks
  • Green: Banks outside the Eurozone
  • Orange: Russian “Mobsters” & Brits

Looking at the timeline, even as late as the end of 2011, when it was clear Greece would default and the banking regulator had to know the banks in Cyprus were doomed, the amount of Eurozone-bank derived deposits in Cyprus was over 20 billion euros, a good portion of which would be subject to massive losses if the Cyprus Template were to be applied at that moment.

[Note that 20 billion euros was – at that time – the same size as the “Russian Mobster” Money.]

But at that moment, as a result of the “collecting the spread” strategy, some big chunk of that money were likely in time deposits, unable to be withdrawn. That money couldn’t flee, not just yet.

But as time passed, those Eurozone bank deposits were slowly reduced down to 10 billion euros, a reduction of 50%. Presumably, as the time deposits expired, the money was brought back to the fatherland.

And then suddenly the President of Cyprus was informed he had 1 week to solve the banking situation that had been pending for more than a year.

In looking at the movement of capital prior to the default, we can give a grade to each participant, as a result of their apparent ability to assess the the danger to their deposits.

The clear winner: Eurozone Banks. Those guys were geniuses. They were the only participant to seriously reduce holdings prior to the default.

Participant Grade
Eurozone [German & French] Banks B+/A-: almost perfect
Cyprus People & Businesses F: completely unaware
Cyprus Banks C-: slightly more aware
Banks Outside Eurozone F: completely unaware
Russian Mobsters F: completely unaware

So it is expected (and a bit sad) that households and businesses don’t leave their banks readily, so its not surprising they stayed on board right up until the end.

What is fascinating to me is that the banks that were NOT in the eurozone clearly had no idea what was coming, and the banks actually ON Cyprus only had an inkling, and that only at the last minute. Given both the timing and the form of the Cyprus bank resolution was in the hands of the ECB, as well as French and German politicians, is this astounding ability of the Eurozone banks to avoid losses truly a surprise?

One question that might be asked is, if the Eurozone banks knew what was going to happen, why not withdraw all their money from the banks on Cyprus?

First, only half the banking deposits on Cyprus were involved in the bail-in. Perhaps the 10 billion euros in remaining Cyprus-EZ bank deposits are in other healthy Cyprus banks. Another explanation is that only a subset of the eurozone banks were well-connected enough to receive advance information.

One last point. Since now we understand how perfectly the well-connected eurozone banking establishment identifies issues in member nation’s banks, and how adept it is at avoiding uninsured depositor haircuts, we might find it useful to watch deposit flows of these Eurozone banks going forward.

They might well provide us insight as to where the next set of banking issues might arise, and perhaps more importantly, what the timing of these issues.”

Thank you, David, for sharing your finding with us. We can now see there are two Cyprus Templates:

1. The public-relations/propaganda model

2. The real one, that enables “core” eurozone banks to pull their deposits out of periphery banks before the deposit expropriation and capital controls kick in.

Why are we not surprised the entire charade and expropriation is rigged to benefit the core banks? For more on the core/periphery structure of the Eurozone, please read The E.U., Neofeudalism and the Neocolonial-Financialization Model (May 24, 2012)

To fully understand the Eurozone’s financial-debt crisis, we must dig through the artifice, obfuscation and propaganda to the real dynamics of Europe’s “new feudalism,” the Neocolonial-Financialization Model.

Source: OfTwoMinds

Jim Sinclair’s Immediate Exit Warning

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In the recent weeks the warnings have been coming more frequent but none so stark as Jim Sinclair’s warning to exit the System now because the financial Nazis are coming. Certainly the Cyprus debacle has lent an urgency, but for US citizens, it must be noted the bail-in-like powers are already in place as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act passed last year.trouble_0

From SilverDoctors

Legendary gold trader Jim Sinclair sent out an email alert to subscribers over the weekend, advising investors that You must now act to exit the system!  Sinclair, who as recently as 2 weeks ago advised those attending his NYC meeting that investors have 2 years to withdraw their IRA and 401k funds from the system, has changed the urgency of his call significantly, stating:
You must exit the system immediately because the Financial Nazis struck in Cyprus and now are moving directly towards you. This is simple fact, which if you ignore will be akin to the rise of the Nazis in Germany for those that knew they should, but never made the decision to leave that system.

Sinclair’s full alert is below:

You must now act to exit the system

 

Bail-in

(excerpt)

The US has already put in place bail-in-like powers as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act passed last year. The law includes a resolution scheme that gives regulators the ability to impose losses on bondholders while ensuring the critical parts of the bank can keep running.

Employees would be paid, the lights would stay on and derivatives contracts would not have to be instantly unwound.

Click here to read the full definition…

I have given my all to communicating the most important conclusions concerning your future financially and therefore on every level of life.

  1. The operation to depress the gold price since the high was limited in time and is now behind us in terms of maximum pain for the bulls.
  2. You must exit the system immediately because the Financial Nazis struck in Cyprus and now are moving directly towards you. This is simple fact, which if you ignore will be akin to the rise of the Nazis in Germany for those that knew they should, but never made the decision to leave that system.

 

The saddest fact is that many of you have thrown away your gold share and bullion insurances to the enriched Bankster bullies. You will now pay no attention to the need to exit the system. It is as if you are moths attracted to the flame of danger, and a sloth in that you are too lazy to take the actions required to protect yourselves. If you do not pay attention to this interview you are going to sacrifice all you have worked to accomplish in your lives. Most certainly those that are planning any form of retirement are right now dancing on the head of a needle.

 Here are a few most important actions you, in my opinion, must take.

 Government sponsored retirement tax preferential retirement programs must realize that one of the IMF plans in Cyprus was to nationalize all retirement programs. That means steal your retirement funds and assets, replacing them with some form of future paper assuming Cyprus returns to solvency.

 You must, in my opinion, face whatever tax consequences there are and close your retirement programs. You are in clear and present danger of confiscation for questionable paper of whatever you hold in these type accounts. In a financial sense you are exactly what the ghettos in Germany and Poland were when they knew they should run but found any excuse possible not to do what was logically screaming at them to take action.

 I am screaming at you from every pulpit I can find, with no personal benefit that you must take various actions and take them now. The fact the IMF, a major international body, had the audacity to demand that Cyprus nationalize all it pensioners and confiscate large percentages of the account values should be like a flashbulb going off in your eye to wake you from your sheeple slumber.

 Bite the bullet.
Pay the tax.
Get your assets back.
Get out of the system.

 The next action you must take is to get as far away from social media, and the use of credit cards for everything because you are painting a picture for the tax collectors that are going to go ballistic in their effort to collect your money from you in order to create revenue for governments going broke, or who are already hiding the fact they are broke.

 It might take some effort, but stop your kids from informing the world of everything you and they have done on their social media. Computer based comparisons of family income to family activities will spur punitive audits when the apparent expenses are greater than the combined declared income.

 The revenues services of every country are cranking up their computer search programs to grab information. You must stop so freely providing information, and maybe bragging on social media to make others think your lives are better than they really are. You must turn off the switch on your children use of social media if they are still under your authority. You must suggest to your emancipated children that they are foolish in informing the world of every little thing that do in search of 1000 friends on social media that would not really give a damn if they had a problem.

 As an example of the new high tech snoops you are feeding with your credit cards and social media, research the following article.

 IRS High-Tech Tools Track Your Digital Footprints – Yahoo! Finance

– Charting and analyzing social media such as Facebook
– Targeting audits by matching tax filings to social media or electronic payments
– Tracking individual Internet addresses and emailing patterns
– Sorting data in 32,000 categories of metadata and 1 million unique “attributes”
– Machine learning across “neural” networks
– Statistical and agent-based modeling
– Relationship analysis based on Social Security numbers and other personal identifiers

  Click here to read the full article…  

 You must eliminate to the greatest degree possible all the agents between you and your assets.

 There is no question that leaving assets in street name with your brokers and bankers is a financial death wish. The preferred way of holding shares of stocks has always been in your own name as physical certificates. The second best method, but much better than street name, is to hold your shares in Direct Registration. Do not expect your banks, brokers or companies you are invested in to make it easy to get out of their system. They will fight you all the way, but you have to insist on your rights regardless of their refusal or false dire warning of negative circumstances when you succeed in demanding your rights. Most of it exaggerations of what is really minutia when it comes to protecting yourselves.

 Large credit balances in the form of banking accounts in CDs or in pure cash is now holding up a red blanket for the fighting confection bull of governments seeking your assets to hold off their financial collapse from their own spending sins of decades.

 We can discuss in open forum, face to face or in writing later what to do with your assets but right now, as Braveheart cried, they must have FREEDOM from the system. There is much more that needs to be done, but what you have here is what should be called first priority. This should be viewed as call to action. I have not been too much off the mark on calling the developments not only of the past 12 years, but for the entirety of my successful career of more than 50 years in finance.

 You ignore me at your own severe personal risk.

Source: SilverDoctors

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