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WGC: Chinese Move Toward Gold Backed Yuan

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Its been discussed by gold bugs over the last few years but Keith Barron in an interview with King World News talks about  the World Gold Council’s commissioned a report which basically says the Chinese are looking to launch a gold backed yuan. Jim Rickards in his book Currency Wars has written about the obvious move for China to back the yuan with gold and its no secret that China with its large dollar reserves are not happy with how its being debased.  With every major Central Bank flat-out printing money combined with gold repatriation stories and hedge fund Pacific Group converting its holdings to physical gold, one cannot help wonder that 2013 could be a very significant year for gold.

The second thing I want to make KWN readers aware of is the report which was commissioned by the World Gold Council.  This is an incredible document, especially coming from the World Gold Council because it’s basically saying that the Chinese are going to back their currency with gold.  This would, in turn, displace the US dollar and make the Chinese yuan the world’s reserve currency.

 The Chinese are sitting on piles of dollars right now, and while the US continues its decline, the reality is that all of the fiat currencies are in a race to the bottom.  We just saw the Bank of Japan yesterday talk about opening up QE and printing vast sums of money.  This will be an attempt to reverse their deflation with inflation.  This move by the Japanese is very, very bullish for gold.

 But between what is happening with the set up for the coming short squeeze in gold, coupled with the Chinese moving to back the yuan with gold, and the shortages we are seeing in the silver market, the outlook for gold and silver going forward are spectacular.  Quite frankly, the gold and silver bulls are going to begin to trample the bears at some point in the near future.”

Last month Stephen Leeb spoke of a chinese diplomat admitting China’s intention only to backtrack shortly afterwards.

There is a ritual we see in overnight trading.  Gold is usually up $4 or $5 at around midnight or 1 AM east coast time.  I’ll be watching gold trade at this time and I can’t count the number of times that in just a minute or two, instead of gold being up $4 or $5, it’s now down $20.  No one is trading at 12 or 1 or 2 in the morning.  Somebody is doing this and it always happens when there is no liquidity.  So you have a game of desperation going on here and the Chinese are aware of this. 

 I was just speaking to a Chinese diplomat and I said to their diplomat, ‘Your two most important commodities are water and gold.’  And this diplomat said to me, ‘Yes, we need gold to back up the yuan.’  Well this diplomat realized very quickly they had made a terrible mistake in admitting that and began to back off and stated, ‘No, it’s not to back the yuan.  It’s because of jewelry.’  But it was too late, the horse had left the barn so-to-speak.

 So the Chinese get this in spades.  The only way for them to become the world’s powerhouse and continue accumulating materials in the resource war is if they have a currency that’s backed up by gold or they have the actual physical gold itself.

The bottom line here is that when I see gold engaged in one of these drops I know it doesn’t make any sense.  The Chinese let the price of gold dip because they are smart buyers and we are playing into their hands with this ridiculous manipulation.

 This game of manipulation we are engaged in with the gold market is going to stop sooner rather than later.  Time is running out on these schemes and when it does stop and when they lose control, you had better be positioned in gold because this will be a bull market to end all bull markets.”

World Gold Council : – Gold Renminbi Mulit Currency Reserve System

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Central Banking To End In Disaster

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Its hard to disagree with this article from MoneyWeek that central banking has been a complete disaster for mankind. But to put all the blame at the feet of central banking would be wrong. Politicians, the media and of course our own ignorance has played a major hand in where we find the global economy. The days of CBs focusing on taming inflation via interest rates is long gone. Instead we get endless bubbles, and now the biggest bubble of all the debt bubble and a big unavoidable shit pile up ahead. 

Central bankers are throwing caution to the winds

There’s a revolution going on in the central banking world.

When the cult of independent central bankers took hold, their main enemy was inflation. They all had to keep inflation rising at a gentle pace of around 2% a year.

They didn’t care about asset price inflation. The price of a house could rocket as much as it liked. And they were quite relaxed about the soaring price of energy as long as this was offset by a drop in the price of music players, for example.

All in all, they managed to stick to the inflation target pretty well. Meanwhile the economy still overheated massively, then collapsed in on itself under the weight of all the debt everyone had taken on.

CBs new recipie for success. It doesn’t involve worrying about inflation, thats just for the little people.

That approach clearly didn’t work. So what’s the new recipe for success?

The Federal Reserve in America has thrown caution over inflation to the winds. It is now emphasising employment over price changes. The Fed has become even more aggressive in its monetary policy, even as the US economy seems to be healthier than it has been in a long time.

In the UK, the Bank of England governor-in-waiting, Mark Carney, says he’s a fan of NGDP targeting. You can read more about this from my colleague Seán Keyes here: Should we replace Mervyn King with a robot? In short, it means you target a certain level of nominal economic growth. If that means tolerating inflation at 5%, while ‘real’ growth is at 0%, then so be it. In other words, it’s a way to go soft on inflation without breaking your rules.

And in Japan, the new party in power has sworn to stop deflation. The Bank of Japan may end up with a new inflation target of 2%, double its current target.

In short, central banks have decided that inflation doesn’t matter any more. Fretting about this target is holding them back from taking the decisive action needed to resuscitate our ailing economies. 2013 is going to be all about taking monetary policy to the max.

We sense disaster looming.

Central banks have a bad record – why trust them now?

Central banking might just work, if it was genuinely independent. If you had central bankers who were willing to do the whole ‘counter-cyclical’ thing, we might have a more stable economy. In other words, if central banks were willing to raise interest rates to temper booms, rather than just slash them to alleviate busts, then they might do some good.

But this is never going to happen. Central banks argue that it’s impossible to see asset bubbles inflating. This is nonsense. The fact is that they don’t care about bubbles.

All that matters to them is that the economy keeps chugging forwards. It doesn’t matter whether it’s chugging towards the promised land or towards a cliff edge – all growth is good growth. So they will never act to rein in a boom, regardless of whether it’s ‘healthy’ or not.

This is because central banks are political institutions. They are not independent. And as long as you understand this, then it’s easy to see why we’re trapped in this self-destructive cycle of bubble-blowing.

Politicians will always pursue ‘boom and bust’ policies because they always think they’ll get out on time. Voters love a boom. Taking the punch bowl away during the boom time is not the way to win votes. And by the time the bust arrives, it’ll be someone else’s problem, with any luck.

This central bank bias in favour of ‘easy’ money lies at the heart of all the bubbles we’ve seen in recent decades. The tech bubble inflated, then burst. Interest rates were slashed. The property bubble inflated, then burst. Interest rates were cut to near-zero, and central banks started buying government bonds. So we now have a bubble in government debt.

There is one thing that is more toxic for bond prices than anything else – inflation. And right on cue, across the world, central banks are falling over themselves to abandon inflation targeting.

Is there a method in their madness? Or are they just pursuing growth at any cost? Past performance is no guide to the future, we’re always told. But I think anyone who believes that central bankers are going to get it right this time is being almost deliberately naïve.

So what can you do about it? A bond market blow-up would be nothing short of disastrous for most asset classes. We can’t know when it’s going to happen. But it’s one good reason to make sure you have a well-diversified portfolio.

We’ve been knocking about some ideas for setting up a long-term, cheap-to-run, core ‘retirement’ portfolio at MoneyWeek recently. We’re looking for something that allows you to sleep at night without sacrificing a big chunk of performance.

We’ll have more details on this in the New Year, but it’s certainly made me think a lot about how investors can survive and even make money with this potential disaster looming in the background.

Loosely speaking, I’d suggest having some money in cheap stocks (Japan in particular – see here for more), very little – if any – money in bonds (except perhaps index-linkers), some gold, and a decent amount of cash. The cash is there to give you the opportunity to snap up cheap assets if and when the bubble finally bursts.

Some interesting quotes relevant to Central Banking

“It is no coincidence that the century of total war coincided with the century of central banking.”

Ron Paul

“the last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth.”
         – Alan Blinder (former Fed Reserve Board Vice Chairman)

Source: MoneyWeek

Spain Is Printing Its Own Euros

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When the SHTF, central banks always resort to money printing. Thats all they know. Just before Ireland was forced into requested a bailout, the Irish Central Bank had to provide ELA to Irish banks to keep the system from collapsing. Reports from WSJ are that the Spanish Central Bank has had to resort to printing money ELA because of the dire situation in Spain. Meanwhile the bank jog/run continues.

As we described in detail yesterday, things are going from worse to worserer as the problems in Spain – more specifically in its banking sector – are deepening as deposit flight accelerates. As the WSJ notes PIMCOs’ comment: “A bank ‘jog’ is happening in Spain – the private sector is leaving the banking system.” But the Bank of Spain isn’t leaving anything to chance. The WSJ disconcertingly highlights that last month the central bank appears for the first time to have activated an emergency lending program that will enable its banks to borrow from the Bank of Spain directly, bypassing the ECB’s relatively tough collateral demands.

The so-called Emergency Liquidity Assistance program is shrouded in secrecy, and the Bank of Spain won’t confirm that it has been used. The Bank of Spain appears to have doled out about EUR400mm under the program, based on publicly available data. That would make Spain at least the fourth euro-zone country – following Greece, Ireland and Portugal – to use the ELA, which generally is reserved for situations when banks have exhausted all other financing options.

As we pointed out yesterday, this would appear to confirm a “full-blown bailout” is imminent, as the collateral problems mount.

 and The Bank of Spain was quick to respond to this reality (with a denial):

Bank of Spain comments in e-mailed statement on WSJ report that central bank provided ELA to lenders:

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) — Bank of Spain says “liquidity provision to banks other than ordinary monetary policy operations represents an insignificant fraction of total lending by the Bank of Spain to financial system.”

Measures adopted to lift restrictions on interest rates on deposits is not aimed at helping banks attract deposits, central bank says

 

Source: ZeroHedge

Global Trade Figures Slowing Down

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This week is certainly a week for a raft of economic data to be released indicating the health of the Global economy and whether we can expect an improvement or not. ZeroHedge  recently reported on a lot of negative headlines regarding global trade and with Spain’s dismal bond auction after LTRO’s have stopped doesn’t bode well. Does this point to a global collapse or more aggressive money printing to come? Recent history has always shown us that ultimately CTRL+P is the CB’s only weapon and that can’t end well.

The weakness in the markets started late last night when Australia posted a surprising second consecutive deficit of $480MM on expectations of a $1.1 billion surplus (with the previous deficit revised even higher). This is obviously quite troubling because as we pointed out 3 weeks ago when recounting the biggest Chinese trade deficit since 1989 we asked readers to “observe the following sequence of very recent headlines: “Japan trade deficit hits record“, “Australia Records First Trade Deficit in 11 Months on 8% Plunge in Exports“, “Brazil Posts First Monthly Trade Deficit in 12 Months ” then of course this: “[US] Trade deficit hits 3-year record imbalance“, and finally, as of late last night, we get the following stunning headline: “China Has Biggest Trade Shortfall Since 1989 on Europe Turmoil.” So who is exporting? Nobody knows, but everyone knows why the Aussie dollar plunged on the headline. The shock sent reverberations across Asian markets, which then spilled over into Europe. Things in Europe went from bad to worse, after Germany reported its February factory orders rose a modest 0.3% on expectations of a solid 1.5% rebound from the -1.8% drop in January. But the straw on the camel’s back was Spain trying to raise €3.5 billion in bonds outside of the LTRO’s maturity, where the results confirmed that it will be a long, hard summer for the Iberian country, which not only raised far less, or €2.6 billion, but the internals were quite atrocious, blowing up the entire Spanish bond curve, and sending Spanish CDS to the widest in over half a year.

Turkish Central Bank Backs Gold

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Last week we had Helicopter Ben attack the gold standard and now we have the Turkish Central Bank announce  that it is doubling the amount of gold that lenders can hold in reserves. Its looking bullish for gold long-term to see both moves recently.

The Turkish central bank has doubled the amount of gold that lenders can hold in reserves (as opposed to paper money – Lira) as part of their reserve requirement changes. As the WSJ reports, this shift from 10% to 20% means that Turkish banks can use their shiny yellow metal as fungible money reserves against foreign currency deposits. This move follows closely on the heels of our comments on last week’s ‘gold transfer’ efforts in Turkey to unleash some of the country’s vast personal holdings of Gold. This effort to draw down on the nation’s individual gold reserves – the traditional form of savings in Turkey – is part of Ankara’s efforts to reduce a finance gap that is currently around 10% of GDP but more importantly it should serve as a lesson reality-check for Bernanke that gold is money and in the words of a 70-year-old housewife “In an emergency, I can convert [gold] to cash and I don’t have to wait for the bank to say the asset has matured.” It would seem a better store of value than the Lira over the past decade or two and we suspect incentives will have to rise considerably to ‘help’ the people part with their savings-gold.

Source: ZeroHedge

Rothschild Want Control Over Iran Central Bank

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A very interesting theory put forward by AmericanFreePress as to the reason why the US and allies are focused on Iran. It either informs or entertain, I’ll leave it up to you.

 

Some researchers are pointing out that Iran is one of only three countries left in the world whose central bank is not under Rothschild control. Before 9-11 there were reportedly seven: Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Libya, Cuba, North Korea and Iran. By 2003, however, Afghanistan and Iraq were swallowed up by the Rothschild octopus, and by 2011 Sudan and Libya were also gone. In Libya, a Rothschild bank was established in Benghazi while the country was still at war.

Islam forbids the charging of usury, the practice of charging excessive, unreasonably high, and often illegal interestrates on loans,and that is a major problem for the Rothschild banking system. Until a few hundred years ago usury was also forbidden in the Christian world and was even punishable by death. It was considered exploitation and enslavement.

Since the Rothschilds took over the Bank of England they have been expanding their banking control over all the countries of the world. Their method has been to get a country’s corrupt politicians to accept massive loans, which they can never repay, and thus go into debt to the Rothschild banking powers. If a leader refuses to accept the loan, he is oftentimes either ousted or assassinated. And if that fails, invasions can follow, and a Rothschild usury-based bank is established.

The Rothschilds exert powerful influence over the world’s major news agencies. By repetition, the masses are duped into believing horror stories about evil villains. The Rothschilds control the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the IMF, the World Bank and the Bank of International Settlements. Also they own most of the gold in the world as well as the London Gold Exchange, which sets the price of gold every day. It is said the family owns over half the wealth of the planet—estimated by Credit Suisse to be $231 trillion—and is controlled by Evelyn Rothschild, the current head of the family.

Objective researchers contend that Iran is not being demonized because they are a nuclear threat, just as the Taliban, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Qadaffi were not a threat.

What then is the real reason? Is it the trillions to be made in oil profits, or the trillions in war profits? Is it to bankrupt the U.S. economy, or is it to start World War III? Is it to destroy Israel’s enemies, or to destroy the Iranian central bank so that no one is left to defy Rothschild’s money racket?

It might be any one of those reasons or, worse—it might be all of them.

Hungary Set to Repeal Its New Law On Central Bank

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The Hungarian Foreign Minister Janos Martonyi spoke about repealing the law it recently introduced on its Central Bank as it bowed to pressure. Its bond yields have risen significantly, currency has collapsed and CDSs have surged to new records. As Hungary positions itself for a bailout it is open to negotiations on the new law which it brought in to have more control over its Central Bank.

Reuters reported

“Hungary’s government is ready to consider modifying disputed legislation if the European Commission deems it necessary, Foreign Minister Janos Martonyi told the bloc’s executive and European Union partners. “We fully respect the authority of the European Commission, the guardian of the EU treaties,”

ZeroHedge reported

 Hungary, which wants to secure a multibillion euro financing deal with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, is locked in a legal dispute with the European Central Bank and Brussels over a new central bank law.

 The European Commission last month asked for the law, which it worried will compromise the bank’s independence, to be repealed.

 Martonyi said the government was ready to conduct dialogue with anyone who raised concrete concerns.

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